The jihadist ambition to establish a global Caliphate has suffered serious setbacks in the last two years. Daesh (Islamic State or IS) emerged as a more brutal and, with its territorial gains in Syria and Iraq, successful jihadist competitor to al-Qa’ida. Yet by October 2019, its self-declared Caliphate had crumbled and its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, committed suicide under duress of an U.S. operation, leaving the global jihadist movement without a center of gravity. Both Daesh and al-Qa’ida (AQ) have been weakened and pushed underground; despite an increasingly widespread network, there is no central battleground on which jihadists can concentrate their aspirations and efforts, as they did Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan over the last two decades. West Africa, and particularly Nigeria, could likely fill this vacuum.
Afflicted with endemic and widespread corruption, absentee governments, high unemployment rates, mass poverty, and factionalized ethnic and religious groups, West Africa is vulnerable to jihadist radicalization and recruitment. The region’s porous borders, organized criminal networks engaged in smuggling and trafficking (of drugs, people, and weapons), and tactical geographic positioning create a permissive environment for jihadi operations. The Islamic State already maintains armed groups in seven African countries—Egypt, Libya, Algeria, Tunisia, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria—as well as small sleeper cells in Mauritania, Morocco, and Sudan. Al-Baghdadi’s successor, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, has confirmed Daesh’s focus on West Africa, in addition to Europe.
Similarly, al-Qa’ida has an established presence in the region as well, with branches in North Africa and throughout the Sahel.
Although they share similar caliphal ambitions and relatively fluid membership, the various AQ and IS-affiliated groups in West Africa are increasingly competitive, not cooperative. This is particularly true in Nigeria, whose northern border regions are becoming the main locus of African, and global, jihadist competition. The largest economy in Africa, Nigeria is also home to what was once the deadliest terror group in the world: Boko Haram.
Various splinters of this group—including a still deadly but reduced Boko Haram (BH) led by the ruthless hardliner Abubakar Shekau, the Islamic State in the West African Province (ISWAP), the AQ-aligned Ansaru, and respective sympathizer factions—are now engaged in an escalating, and increasingly deadly, struggle for prominence, recruits, and resources. This fight for West Africa between terrorist groups could fuel a regional Islamist revival and shape the future leadership, ideology, and strategy of the global jihadist movement. Or, if approached strategically, it could be used to weaken the jihadist movement on the African continent.
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